The future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price for the remaining part of the year could largely hinge on a single question: Will a Bitcoin spot ETF receive approval in the United States?

Commercial litigator and Bitcoin advocate, Joe Carlasare, projected a 30-40% likelihood of such an ETF being launched within a year, via a tweet on Monday. He subsequently expanded on the reasoning behind these estimates during an interview with CryptoPotato.

The Challenge of Grayscale’s Legal Case

Carlasare suggests that Grayscale’s ongoing lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) offers the most viable hope for the launch of a spot ETF.

As the holders of the world’s biggest Bitcoin fund, Grayscale brought a case against the regulator last year for “arbitrarily and capriciously” rejecting their ETF application, while approving several similar Bitcoin futures ETFs.

The lawsuit had its initial hearing in March, where the court appeared more receptive to Grayscale’s arguments than those of the SEC. This development led certain analysts, including Bloomberg’s Elliot Z. Stein, to assign a 70% probability of Grayscale succeeding, hence increasing the chances of a spot ETF approval by year-end.

Carlasare, however, tempers his optimism, particularly as a win for Grayscale won’t guarantee a spot ETF.

The attorney explained to CryptoPotato, “The challenging aspect about evaluating the Grayscale v SEC case is that a ‘victory’ could merely mean that the appeals court instructs the SEC to reconsider their decision.” Essentially, the court could potentially direct the case back to the SEC for further deliberation and evaluation.

BlackRock’s SSA Agreement with Coinbase

So far, a SEC review has resulted in rejection for every similar product applicant. Nevertheless, the market remains hopeful that a recent submission from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may find success given the firm’s impressive track record with previous SEC applications.

The SEC labeled the filings of BlackRock and Fidelity as “insufficient” last Friday, as they failed to specify a particular Bitcoin spot exchange with which their respective exchanges, NASDAQ and CBOE, would establish a surveillance sharing agreement (SSA). Both firms have since refiled, specifying that their intended SSA would be with Coinbase.

While Coinbase is the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the U.S., Carlasare expressed concerns that the platform might not represent a market of “adequate size,” as demanded by the SEC.

“The term ‘adequate size’ is somewhat unclear, but the SEC has indicated that it needs to be a market sufficiently large such that anyone attempting to manipulate the Bitcoin spot market would inevitably trade on that platform,” he clarified. “Applying this to the SSA with Coinbase, one might infer that it’s unlikely to satisfy the SEC, especially as the majority of spot trading volume is outside the U.S.”

Carlasare assigns a 50% chance of Grayscale succeeding in its case against the SEC, and a 40% probability that Coinbase will be the key element needed to secure BlackRock’s ETF approval. He describes both odds as “optimistic.”