The leap of Bitcoin BTC $30,245 to $29,000 is more than just a spontaneous price spike, according to a prominent market analyst. This optimistic outlook is fuelled by considerable large-scale purchases that led to a renewed positive market sentiment on June 21.
Unlikelihood of a False $29,000 Breakout
Market data sourced from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed BTC/USD touching $29,014 on Bitstamp—the highest point since May 7. This upward trend continued due to the growing buyer interest triggered by various announcements related to new institutional investment products focused on Bitcoin.
This price rally prompted some analysts, who were previously skeptical about the overall market robustness, to slightly revise their perspectives. Celebrating this shift, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital referred to the significant BTC breakout beyond the multi-month downtrend, casting doubt on the possibility of this surge ending up as an upside wick like in previous months.
Only a day before this surge, when the positive trend was already taking shape, Rekt Capital had highlighted the importance of the weekly candle close to confirm a substantial trend reversal.
He further added, “If BTC manages a weekly candle close beyond the multi-month downtrend, it would serve as an excellent confirmation of the breakout. Nonetheless, a dip of BTC into the downtrend followed by a successful retest would offer full confirmation of the breakout. The retest area is approximately $26,800.”
Crypto Tony, another fellow trader, predicted that Bitcoin might reach his upside target sooner than he had anticipated. He reasoned, “Unless Bitcoin loses its support zone at $25,000, the bears don’t have the upper hand yet. The moment we saw the bulls step in, that was our signal to go long. The plan is to execute.”
Other traders took a more cautious stance. Daan Crypto Trades and Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, disclosed that they had closed their long positions at the $29,000 mark. However, van de Poppe maintained that BTC/USD was now on the trajectory towards $38,000 or higher.
Short-Term Holder Support Comes Through
In terms of support levels, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode emphasized the importance of the short-term holder (STH) cost basis. Currently at $26,400, the STH cost basis has become a significant line of defense, with BTC/USD showing strong resilience after pushing STHs into unrealized loss territory.
Glassnode noted, “The $26,550 level continues to play a crucial role in determining the market trend,” referring to previous research covered by Cointelegraph. “The recent deviation below the STH-CB wasn’t substantial, leading to a recovery of the dominant uptrend.”
The 200-week moving average (MA), another critical support line during bear markets, also hovers around the mid-$26,000 zone.