Potential Surge in Bitcoin Price to $450,000 Linked to Halving Trend

17 views 12:21 pm 0 Comments May 20, 2024
  • The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is anticipated this week, sparking curiosity about its potential impact on the cryptocurrency’s price.
  • Noelle Acheson, the writer of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, suggests that based on historical trends, Bitcoin’s price could surge to as high as $450,000 in the coming year.
  • Despite optimistic projections, concerns such as the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are identified as factors that could hinder a significant bullish trend.

The imminent Bitcoin halving event has captured the attention of many, prompting speculation about its implications on the digital currency’s value.

According to Noelle Acheson, the mind behind the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, Bitcoin’s price has the potential to skyrocket to $450,000 within the next year, drawing parallels to previous market cycles.

However, Acheson also cautions that there may be challenging times ahead for Bitcoin investors.

Analysts also highlight geopolitical uncertainties, including the heightened discord between Israel and Iran, as potential obstacles to substantial market gains.

Stay informed with our weekly newsletters.

Bitcoin’s Price Movement

The concept of halving is ingrained in Bitcoin’s protocol since its inception by the enigmatic figure, Satoshi Nakamoto, around 15 years ago.

The halving event is expected to occur upon the creation of block number 840,000, estimated to take place around April 20.

This event will halve miners’ rewards for validating new Bitcoin transactions, reducing the reward from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin. This reduction in supply is anticipated to drive up the coin’s value.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant surges following the three previous halving events.

Referencing Bloomberg data, Acheson highlights that Bitcoin’s price surged by 8,691% a year after the 2012 halving, followed by 295% after the 2016 event, and 559% after the 2020 halving.

If these historical patterns persist, Bitcoin could potentially reach \(450,000 within a year or \)270,000 if the current cycle mirrors the trends of 2016, as stated in an April 13 newsletter by Acheson.

Unique Market Dynamics

Acheson underscores that the current market cycle exhibits distinct characteristics, notably being the first time Bitcoin has attained a record high before a halving event.

In previous cycles, it took over 500 days post-halving for Bitcoin to achieve a new peak.

The implications of this deviation raise questions about the potential duration to reach the next all-time high and the likelihood of a sharp correction post-event, especially amidst various other market influences.

Le Shi, the head of trading at market maker Auros, mentioned to DL News that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is primarily attributed to the introduction of new US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, attracting a fresh cohort of investors.

Middle Eastern Developments

Bitcoin faced an 8.3% decline in its price over the past week, currently trading at $66,270.

On April 13, Bitcoin dipped to as low as $62,697, according to CoinGecko.

The market turbulence coincided with escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly with Iran’s actions towards Israel.

Jehan Chu, the founder of Kinetic Capital, noted to DL News that global instability and persistent inflation are impeding a robust bullish trend, with Bitcoin’s halving event reflecting the current market sentiment.

Unforeseen Impacts

Acheson refutes the notion held by some analysts that the halving’s effects on Bitcoin’s price are already priced in due to prior awareness of the event.

She emphasizes that this assumption relies on the efficiency of markets and universal awareness, which may not be accurate.

Acheson asserts that the only certainty for crypto investors is the supply-side impact of the halving event, leading to a decrease in new Bitcoin entering the market.

Crypto Market Updates

  • Bitcoin has observed a 3.4% increase in the last 24 hours, reaching a trading price of $66,270.
  • Ethereum has surged by 7.3% to $3,250.

Sebastian Sinclair serves as a markets correspondent for DL News. For any tips or inquiries, reach out to Sebastian at [email protected] _.