Bitcoin’s leap over the $30,000 mark has drawn regulatory concerns into the shadows as the cryptocurrency’s value continues to climb, and options data hint towards a continuation of this trend.

The unexpected 15% upswing in Bitcoin’s price, reaching $30,300 from June 19 to June 21, left many traders off guard, prompting $125 million worth of liquidations in leveraged short futures contracts. The precise impetus behind this rally is complex to determine, but analysts indicate it might be linked to the possibility of an influx of institutional investors if BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) secures regulatory clearance.

Cathie Wood, ARK Invest’s CEO and CIO, shed light on the organization’s optimistic position on Bitcoin BTC $30,012 price, aiming high at a $1 million target. She argued that Bitcoin could still shine brighter than the traditional financial system by mitigating the inherent counterparty risk, even in a deflationary climate.

On June 16, the regulatory pressure noticeably dropped when Binance managed to reach a temporary agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to sidestep a possible asset freeze. This event further enhanced the opportunity for Bitcoin bears to capitalize on the $715 million weekly BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin’s valuation dipped below $26,300 on June 10, instigating traders to take bearish bets using options contracts. It wasn’t until June 16 that Bitcoin regained this ground, which elucidates why bearish traders focused their bets on Bitcoin trading beneath $27,000.

The 0.82 put-to-call ratio depicts the differential in open interest between the $415 million call (buy) options and the $300 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome might be less impactful as bears were caught unprepared by Bitcoin’s swift 10% rise over two days.

For instance, should Bitcoin’s price hover around $29,800 at 8:00 am UTC on June 23, only $5 million worth of put options would be left. This happens as the right to offload Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 becomes irrelevant if BTC trades above this threshold when the options expire.

Bulls appear favorably positioned to secure a $250 million profit. Here are four plausible scenarios based on the current price trends. The availability of options contracts on June 23 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments will vary depending on the expiry price, and the imbalance favoring each side will drive the theoretical profit:

• Between $27,000 and $28,000: 3,500 calls vs. 1,200 puts, favoring call options by a net $60 million.
• Between $28,000 and $29,000: 7,300 calls vs. 500 puts, giving the call options a net benefit of $195 million.
• Between $29,000 and $30,000: 8,600 calls vs. 100 puts, extending the bull’s advantage to $250 million.
• Between $30,000 and $31,000: 10,400 calls vs. 0 puts, leaving bulls in absolute control, profiting by $310 million.

This estimate considers only put options for bearish bets and call options for neutral-to-bullish trades. But, this simplification neglects more sophisticated investment strategies, such as a trader possibly selling a call option, resulting in negative Bitcoin exposure above a specific price, which is challenging to quantify.

Bears might attempt to downplay multiple Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from BlackRock and WisdomTree. Meanwhile, bulls should be attentive to regulatory shifts, such as the ongoing Binance investigation in France for allegations of illegal activities in digital assets services and severe money laundering cases.

The key level for the weekly expiration is $28,000, but accurately predicting the outcome is tricky due to escalating regulatory risks in the cryptocurrency landscape. If bulls manage to make a profit of $250 million or more, it’s likely these funds will be used to further bolster the $28,000 support level.