Bitcoin kicks off a pivotal week with its $30,000 position firmly maintained at the weekly close.
Bitcoin BTC $30,424 is ushering in the new week on a high note, standing firm above the $30,000 benchmark following its most recent rapid appreciation.
The Bitcoin price movement has been fulfilling the bullish expectations over the past weeks, despite periods of horizontal trading that offered little respite. The question now is – can this momentum be sustained?
That’s the uncertainty plaguing every trader’s mind this week. $30,000 persisted beyond the weekly close, yet in a turbulent crypto market, all possibilities are open.
The macroeconomic atmosphere remains fairly typical for the last week of June, posing some potential risk to asset price catalysts but steering clear of multiple major data releases simultaneously.
The recent news from Russia over the weekend seems to have had minimal influence on other market performances, as most of the events concluded prior to the commencement of this week’s trading.
Looking at Bitcoin specifically, it seems to be entering a stage of evaluation, with its fundamentals potentially poised for a downturn from record highs.
Market sentiment is also unpredictable, with the $30,000 mark serving as a crucial pivot point.
Cointelegraph provides an insight into these factors and more in the weekly recap of what’s driving Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.
Bitcoin enthusiasts safeguard $30,000 at the weekly finish
Over the latter part of the weekend, Bitcoin slipped slightly after briefly hitting the $31,000 mark.
Despite the absence of momentum, bulls successfully upheld the $30,000 milestone overnight, and as of writing on June 26, $30,500 has emerged as a focal point, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
In total, BTC/USD experienced a 15.6% rise last week, marking it as the third most impressive weekly performance of 2023, as per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
“The priority this week is converting that resistance/supply zone at $31,000 into support,” renowned trader Crypto Tony shared with his Twitter followers.
“That’s my main focus, but I’m still long while we’re consolidating beneath this level. Any sharp drops, and I’ll be closing with profits and seeking re-entry.”
Both Bitcoin and Ether ETH $1,867, the leading altcoin by market cap, are confronting resistance, with the latter fighting for the $2,000 mark.
“This week will undoubtedly be significant for all of us,” he remarked.
Colleague trader Jelle concurred, predicting further gains once the $30,000 mark is conclusively addressed.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the broader Bitcoin price correction as “over” and highlighted renewed inflows into altcoins.
“We’re already noticing some money flow into altcoins as BTC remains stable,” part of the weekend’s analysis stated, adding that the total crypto market cap has carried out an impressive support retest.
The total crypto market is also on Michaël van de Poppe’s radar, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who is watching its potential reclaim of the 200-week moving average.
In contrast to BTC price strength, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are putting the brakes on their own gains
In a fascinating, albeit possibly temporary counterpoint to BTC price strength, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are easing their own gains.
According to BTC.com’s latest estimates, Bitcoin’s network difficulty is set to reduce at its next adjustment on June 29.
This will be the first downward adjustment since early May and is currently projected to be the second-largest of 2023, around -2.5%.
Still, in the broader historical context, the shift is modest, with mining company Simple Mining terming the combination of a soaring spot price and declining difficulty as “miners’ two favorite things.”
Meanwhile, James McAvity, CEO of Texas-based Bitcoin energy firm Cormint, proposed that local events are accountable for the difficulty hiccup.
The hash rate, an estimated measure of the computing power committed to mining, showcased similar behavior on the day, having descended from record highs over the previous week, according to data from Blockchain.com.
Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio indicates a “new breakout” is imminent
Bitcoin seems to be on the verge of a “new speculation cycle,” as suggested by popular analyst Philip Swift.
In his most recent exploration into Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric, the LookIntoBitcoin founder proposed that the BTC supply is transitioning from being hodler-centric to becoming a speculative instrument.
Swift’s RHODL examines the realized value of coins in specific age bands – their value when they were last moved. The RHODL ratio compares the one-week band to the one to two years band.
He explains on LookIntoBitcoin that when the one-week value significantly exceeds the one to two years value, it’s a signal that the market is overheating.
Although it might seem complicated, the RHODL ratio acts as a handy tool for Bitcoin price cycles and is currently displaying the typical behavior expected at the onset of bull markets.
The metric suggests that opportunistic traders are stepping in once again, indicative of a shift to wider mainstream trading interest.
“With new participants entering the market and younger coins holding more value, the RHODL Ratio seems primed for a new breakout,” Swift observed.
Market sentiment might “swing the other way”
The fate of the $30,000 price level significantly influences crypto market sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges the composition of market mood, has been swinging considerably over the past few days as BTC/USD attempts to establish new support.
After peaking at 65/100 on June 22, the Index has lost 10 points, trending toward “neutral” territory as spot price momentum eases.
The index is a lagging indicator, yet it shows the market’s sensitivity to current price action, and not just BTC, with ETH also trying to turn $2,000 into support.
Based on sentiment data, popular traders advised against longing until more definitive signals were provided.
“Sentiment could be about to swing the other way,” one said.