Lindy effect, explained

The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy’s Law) is a theory that holds that the life expectancy of a non-perishable thing, such as a technology or cultural phenomenon, is directly correlated with its age. 

Broadway actors used to gather at New York’s Lindy Deli, where author Nassim Nicholas Taleb first introduced the term. The Lindy effect would indicate that a Broadway show’s longevity would be approximately the same if it ran for a specific amount of weeks. This principle implies that the longer something has existed, the longer it is expected to continue existing.

One of its characteristics is the Lindy effect’s nonlinear link between age and remaining lifespan. In general, something grows stronger with age since it has previously withstood multiple selection pressures. This concept has applications across various domains. In the technology field, it implies that long-standing technologies have a higher chance of enduring and being relevant. 

In finance, it can help investors concentrate on time-tested methods rather than fleeting trends. In culture, timeless works of art, music and literature will likely continue to impact society for many years to come. Hence, the Lindy effect provides a valuable heuristic for evaluating the durability and endurance of concepts, innovations and cultural events across various domains.

Application of the Lindy effect to blockchain

The Lindy effect provides insightful information about the resilience and lifespan of various blockchain initiatives and cryptocurrencies in the field of blockchain technology. 

A blockchain project has a higher chance of remaining relevant and profitable in the long run if it has demonstrated its viability and longevity. Established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which have been around for over a decade, exemplify this principle.

Developers and investors can use the Lindy effect to assess cryptocurrency and blockchain initiatives. People generally view projects with a longer history of security, decentralization and community support as more reliable and resilient. This could impact investment choices, giving initiatives with a track record of stability and innovation more weight.

The Lindy effect also emphasizes how crucial it is to comprehend the underlying concepts and technologies of blockchain initiatives. It emphasizes fundamental elements necessary for long-term viability, such as governance structures, consensus processes and network security. Stakeholders in the blockchain sector can choose which projects to fund and make informed decisions by applying the Lindy effect.

How does the Lindy effect apply to the Bitcoin blockchain?

When it comes to Bitcoin — the first cryptocurrency, which has been around since 2009 — the Lindy effect is highly relevant. 

The fact that Bitcoin has survived and rebounded over the last 10 years is evidence of its continuing significance and possible future growth. Being the first decentralized digital currency, Bitcoin has overcome several obstacles, such as market volatility, technological difficulties and governmental scrutiny. 

Cryptocurrency regulations vary globally, with some countries embracing crypto, such as El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, while others, like China, have imposed outright bans. Regulatory changes can heavily influence Bitcoin’s market, impacting its price with downward pressure from restrictions and potential increases with enhanced accessibility measures like exchange-traded fund approvals and improved security protocols.

Regardless, Bitcoin has continuously held the top spot among cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization and user base. It also attained the rank of the eighth-largest asset globally when it briefly exceeded the market capitalization of silver. On March 6, 2024, as gold soared to an unprecedented $2,130 in traditional markets, Bitcoin set a new record, reaching $69,210 and marking a historic day for the cryptocurrency community.

According to the Lindy effect, Bitcoin has a greater chance of remaining important if it endures and serves as a decentralized store of wealth and medium of exchange. The fact that it is widely used, its network security and its institutional interest are all signs of its resilience. Furthermore, over time, Bitcoin’s value proposition and scarcity are enhanced by its protocol-established fixed supply cap of 21 million coins.

The endurance of Bitcoin throughout market downturns, its ability to attract long-term hodlers (holders), and its continuous development and improvement through innovations like the Lightning Network and Taproot are a few instances of the Lindy effect in action. 

Other examples include innovative solutions, such as the RSK platform and the BRC-20 token standard, which aim to expand Bitcoin’s capabilities, introducing smart contracts and tokenization directly on its blockchain. That said, Bitcoin’s compliance with the Lindy effect highlights its standing as a key technology that could play a long and lasting role in the digital economy.

Metcalfe’s law vs. The Lindy effect

Metcalfe’s law and the Lindy effect are two different but complementary principles used to assess the worth and lifespan of systems. 

According to the Lindy effect, something’s probability of continuing into the future increases with its duration. Age is a stand-in for potential resilience and focuses on an entity’s ability to withstand changes. 

On the other hand, the value of a network is proportionate to the square of its user base, according to Metcalfe’s law. It highlights the concept of the “network effect,” which holds that a network’s value increases with the number of users it has because of the greater connectivity and interaction. Metcalfe’s law addresses the growth dynamics and network effects inside systems, whereas the Lindy Effect focuses on the age and robustness of systems.