Adam Back, Blockstream’s CEO, suggests that Bitcoin’s price might skyrocket to $10 million by the close of Bitcoin’s sixth halving cycle in 2032, providing layer-2 Bitcoin technology and wallet infrastructure significantly improve.
In a recent Twitter thread, Back, a notable contributor to Bitcoin Core, delineated to his vast audience of 509,000 followers the conditions under which Hal Finney’s ambitious $10 million BTC price prediction could materialize.
Back outlined that, on average, BTC’s value has annually doubled since 2013. If this trend persists, Bitcoin could be worth $10 million, commanding a massive market cap of around $200 trillion, within approximately nine years.
However, Back stressed that this valuation hinges on rapid advancements in Bitcoin’s layer-2 technologies and wallet infrastructure to allow these innovations adequate time to scale:
“Interesting developments are on the horizon for the next two halvings. However, technological scaling is a race against time. The upcoming billion users need to own their UTXO, their keys, and enjoy censorship-resistant cold storage, without compromising the main-chain security,” Back shared.
He further proposed that this likely necessitates the adoption of sidechains/drivechains as a compromise, in addition to more Lightning network optimization. Back emphasized the urgency of these improvements as it takes time for technology to mature, and for wallets, interoperability, and integration to advance.
Back also responded to a comment suggesting that Bitcoin adoption is still in the early stages of the S-curve, with only 1-2% of the world population engaged with Bitcoin. He predicts a surge of investors moving their BTC into cold storage wallets:
“I suspect Bitcoin might exceed predictions and tap into the $100-300 trillion market caps, stabilize, and then steadily gain adoption over time. With the average entry points being lower than the then-current prices, there will be little incentive for mass sell-offs,” he suggested.
Back speculates that part of this adoption wave may be driven by what he terms “hyperbitcoinization spurts,” where individuals in hyperinflationary environments will seek refuge in Bitcoin.
In response to another comment, Back also conceded that efforts to financialize Bitcoin have been less successful than desired. He proposed that Bitcoin could be utilized in real estate mortgage structures, with property serving as collateral and Bitcoin as the interest:
“The market for Bitcoin-native financialization is immature and largely untapped. Bitcoin structured products, Bitcoin-backed mortgages with interest, and other products can broaden Bitcoin’s usage, match risk profiles, and drive further growth,” he stated.
For Bitcoin to reach the $10 million mark, Back added that it would need to capture a significant share of store of value premiums currently held by bonds, real estate, gold, and stock portfolios.